Fall 2026 Market Update

Rates at a 19-year high.
Supply finally thinning.

Our quarterly read on the rate environment, the Salt Lake City and Wasatch Front apartment market, and what both mean for owners and developers deciding on financing this fall.

Published September 29, 2026 by Wasatch Capital Group, Salt Lake City

Rate Snapshot
Where rates stand
at the end of September.
BenchmarkLevelWhat changed
Fed funds target3.75-4.00%Raised 0.25% on September 16, the first increase in three years. Futures markets are pricing a strong chance of another hike in October.
10-year TreasuryAbove 5.2%Highest level since 2007, up nearly half a point over the past four weeks and more than a full point over the past year.
2-year Treasury~4.7%Climbed with expectations for further Fed tightening.
HUD annual MIP0.25%Uniform across all multifamily programs since October 2025, down from as high as 0.65% for market-rate deals.

HUD and agency fixed rates are priced off the 10-year Treasury, so long-term fixed-rate debt is the most expensive it has been in nearly two decades. Floating-rate bridge and construction loans are also moving higher as the Fed tightens. For most stabilized deals, debt service coverage, not loan-to-value, is now the constraint that sets loan size.

Salt Lake City and the Wasatch Front
The supply wave
is being absorbed.

Salt Lake City delivered a decade-high 9,430 apartment units in 2025, equal to 6.7% of existing stock and well above the national pace. That supply pushed asking rents slightly negative early in the year, yet stabilized occupancy held near 94.7% in February.

The picture improved through the second quarter. Nine of the metro's 11 submarkets saw vacancy tighten, led by West Jordan, South Jordan and Riverton, and Orem, where little new construction is underway. Rents posted their largest quarterly gain in several years, and asking rents are projected to end 2026 near $1,600 per month.

Downtown remains the softest area, with heavy concessions on recently delivered luxury buildings, but its 2026 delivery slate is roughly 40% smaller than last year's. Across the metro, construction starts fell to 4,770 units in 2025 as financing tightened, which points to meaningfully less new supply in 2027 and 2028. Job growth of 1.4% and unemployment of 3.4% continue to support demand.

What We Are Telling Owners
Four conversations
worth having now.

Plan the take-out on recent deliveries

HUD 223(f) no longer requires a property to wait three years after construction. Owners of recently delivered properties with maturing construction or bridge loans can size a 223(f) refinance now and close it as soon as stabilized income supports the loan.

Let amortization do the work

With rates this high, a 35-year fully amortizing HUD loan and a 0.25% MIP often support more proceeds at the same coverage ratio than a 30-year agency loan. It is worth running both before choosing.

Build now, deliver into less supply

Projects starting today would deliver in 2028 or 2029, when the pipeline is projected to be much thinner. HUD 221(d)(4) fixes the permanent rate before construction starts, which removes lease-up refinance risk.

Keep an eye on the exit

HUD loans are assumable and allow a rate modification if rates fall later. Locking long-term debt at a cycle high is less risky when both of those options exist.

See how your property
sizes today.

We run preliminary HUD, agency, and bridge sizing side by side at no cost. Send us the basics and we will reply within one business day.

Request a Sizing

Property, unit count, current NOI or rents, and your goal are all we need to start.

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Sources

This update is for general information only and is not an offer to lend. Figures are approximate as of the publication date.